ECONOMIC STAGNATION, FIXED FACTORS, AND POLICY THRESHOLDS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: EASTERLY, W
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90042-6
• 发表日期: 1994
• 页码: 525-557
• 关键词: economic growth; Economic development

摘要

An endogenous growth model with fixed factors predicts that countries will stagnate if policies pass a threshold; initial income does not affect whether a country stagnates. For growing countries, the model has transitional dynamics where growth first accelerates and then decelerates as income rises. The data confirm these predictions: a probit equation predicts well whether countries stagnate as a function of policies but not of income, a truncated regression for growing countries shows a 'hump-shaped' relation between initial income and subsequent growth, and equality of coefficients on income and other variables between the stagnation and growth regimes is rejected.