TAX DISTURBANCES AND REAL ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY IN THE POSTWAR UNITED-STATES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: BRAUN, RA
• 署名单位: University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• 发表日期: 1994
• 页码: 441-462
• 关键词: Fiscal policy; business fluctuations; time-series models

摘要

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of cyclical fluctuations in marginal tax rates. It finds that systematically including tax variables in a standard real business cycle model substantially improves the model's ability to reproduce basic facts about postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations. In particular, modeling fluctuations in personal and corporate income tax rates increases the model's predicted relative variability of hours and decreases its predicted correlation between hours and average productivity. Fluctuations in tax rates produce large substitution effects that alter the leisure/labor supply decision.