DO REAL BUSINESS-CYCLE MODELS REALLY EXHIBIT BUSINESS-CYCLE BEHAVIOR

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: SIMKINS, SP
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(94)90007-8
• 发表日期: 1994
• 页码: 381-404
• 关键词: BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS; business cycles; FORECASTING AND SIMULATION

摘要

Previous research indicates that real business cycle models are capable of reproducing important features of U.S. business cycle behavior. Here I employ classical methods of business cycle analysis to determine how well the cyclical properties of simulated data from a representative real business cycle model match up with postwar U.S. business cycle characteristics. While the simulated model reproduces qualitative features consistent with observed business cycle experience, quantitative goodness-of-fit tests show that for many sectors of the economy the cyclical characteristics of the simulated data deviate significantly from U.S. business cycle experience.