The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: BenDavid, D; Papell, DH
• 署名单位: University of Houston System; University of Houston; Tel Aviv University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01226-5
• 发表日期: 1995
• 页码: 453-475
• 关键词: long-term economic growth; structural change

摘要

The 'stylized fact' that growth rates remain constant over the long run was a fundamental feature of postwar growth theory. Using recently developed tests for structural change in univariate time series, we determine whether, and when, a break in growth rates exists for 16 countries. We find that most countries exhibited fairly steady growth for a period lasting several decades, terminated by a significant, and sudden, drop in GDP levels. Following the break, per capita output in most countries continued to grow at roughly double their prebreak rates for many decades, even after their original growth path had been surpassed.