Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kaminsky, GL; Lewis, KK
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01251-2
• 发表日期: 1996
• 页码: 285-312
• 关键词: Monetary policy; foreign exchange intervention

摘要

A frequently cited explanation for why foreign exchange interventions affect the exchange rate is that these interventions signal future monetary policy intentions. This explanation says that central banks signal a more contractionary monetary policy in the future by buying domestic currency today. Therefore, the expectations of future tighter monetary policy make the domestic currency appreciate, even though the current monetary effects of the intervention are typically offset by central banks. Of course, this explanation presumes that central banks in fact back up interventions with subsequent changes in monetary policy. In this paper, we empirically examine this presumption.