Intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement in the business cycle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hornstein, A; Praschnik, J
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00056-1
• 发表日期: 1997
• 页码: 573-595
• 关键词: real business cycles; multi-sector growth model; comovement

摘要

The post-war US business cycle is characterized by positive comovement of employment and output across sectors. It has been argued that multi-sector growth models are inconsistent with this observation when changes in relative productivities are the main source of fluctuations. We suggest that the input-output structure of an economy, in particular the pervasive use of intermediate inputs, can induce positive comovement in sectoral employment and output following changes in relative productivities. We calibrate a model of the US economy for the durable and nondurable goods producing sectors, and show that sectoral employment and output move together if intermediate inputs are used in production. The model is also consistent with the observation that the relative price of nondurable goods is procyclical. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.