UK Phillips curves and monetary policy

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Haldane, A; Quah, D
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00025-2
• 发表日期: 1999
• 页码: 259-278
• 关键词: beliefs; inflation; natural rate; STABILITY

摘要

This paper documents some stylized facts on evolving UK Phillips curves, and shows how these differ from their US versions. We interpret UK Phillips curve dynamics in a positive theory of monetary policy - how policymaker attitudes on the Phillips curve have evolved since the 1950s - rather than, more traditionally, as interaction between exogenous demand and supply disturbances. Combining this framework with reasoned conjectures on how policymakers' beliefs have changed helps explain some features of the evolving UK Phillips curve. We suggest that correlations suggesting an extreme favorable unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policymakers' correctly acknowledging that no tradeoff exists. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.