Optimal monetary policy rules in a rational expectations model of the Phillips curve

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Clark, PB; Goodhart, CAE; Huang, HZ
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(98)00055-5
• 发表日期: 1999
• 页码: 497-520
• 关键词: Phillips curve; optimal monetary policy rules; commitment versus discretion

摘要

Using a rational expectations model based on a Phillips curve with persistence in inflation, we derive optimal monetary policy rules under both commitment and discretion. We assume that the central bank targets the natural rate of output, so there is no incentive generating an average inflation bias. With commitment, inflation has less persistence but more conditional variability, whereas output has more persistence and less conditional variability than with discretion. As the commitment strategy stabilizes the systematic component of inflation, it is less responsive to random shocks to inflation. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E52; E58; C61.