Inflation dynamics:: A structural econometric analysis

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Galí, J; Gertler, M
• 署名单位: New York University; Pompeu Fabra University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00023-9
• 发表日期: 1999
• 页码: 195-222
• 关键词: inflation; Phillips curve; real marginal cost

摘要

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward-looking price setting, while statistically significant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.