The Phillips curve in Australia

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Gruen, D; Pagan, A; Thompson, C
• 署名单位: Australian National University; Reserve Bank of Australia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00024-0
• 发表日期: 1999
• 页码: 223-258
• 关键词: Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; monetary policy; Reserve Bank of Australia

摘要

In this paper we discuss the development of Phillips curves in Australia over the forty years since Phillips first estimated one using Australian data. We examine the central issues faced by researchers estimating Australian Phillips curves. These include the distinction between the short- and long-run trade-offs between inflation and unemployment, and the changing level of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), particularly in the 1970s. We estimate Phillips curves for prices and unit labour costs in Australia over the past three decades. These Phillips curves allow the NAIRU to change through time, and include a role for import prices and 'speed-limit' effects. The paper concludes by discussing the changing role of the Phillips curve in the intellectual framework used to analyse inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia over the past three decades. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.