Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bae, SK; Ratti, RA
• 署名单位: University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00041-6
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 581-604
• 关键词: long-run neutrality; inflation crises; bank insolvencies

摘要

Using long, low frequency data on money and output over 1884-1996 for Argentina and over 1912-1995 for Brazil, it is found that money is long-run neutral but not long-run superneutral with regard to real output. A rise in money growth is associated with a decline in output - the opposite of the Tobin effect. The introduction of dummy variables for 1930s or to capture recent periods of financial disruption associated with bank insolvencies does not restore long-run superneutrality for either country. However, results indicate that bank insolvency episodes have a distinct and negative influence on output. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E31; E51.