Seasonal cycles, business cycles, and monetary policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Liu, Z
• 署名单位: Clark University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00031-3
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 441-464
• 关键词: seasonality; business cycles; monetary policy; consumption durability

摘要

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model that is consistent with both seasonal and business cycle facts in the U.S. economy. The model features consumption durability and a transaction technology, both crucial in accounting for seasonal patterns of nominal variables. A calibrated version of the model is used to quantitatively evaluate welfare consequences of three alternative monetary policy rules: (1) the Fed's historical policy that smooths nominal interest rates at the seasonal frequency, but not at the business cycle frequency; (2) a constant-money-growth rule; and (3) a constant-interest-rate rule. We find that the historical policy is associated with higher welfare than both alternatives, (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E32: E41; E52.