Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bernasconi, M; Kirchkamp, O
• 署名单位: University of Mannheim; University of Naples Federico II
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00030-1
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 315-343
• 关键词: OLG-model; expectations; inflation; STABILITY; monetary policy; experiments

摘要

The following is an examination of experiments using an overlapping generations model, where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period. A new experimental setup is used that allows us to observe more details in the process of expectation forming and to separate this process from the actual saving process. In contrast to experimental findings by Lim, Prescott, Sunder; Marimon, Spear, Sunder; and Marimon, Sunder we have found that (1) agents do not form first-order adaptive expectations; (2) subjects 'over-save' for precautionary reasons; and as a result (3) the so-called Friedman conjecture holds, i.e. monetary policies which are equivalent in static equilibrium exhibit different levels and different volatility with regard to inflation in the experiment. This may generate important policy trade-offs between monetary regimes. We then discuss our findings and relate them to current research on adaptive learning and the role it may have in ranking alternative monetary policies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification. C92: E21: E31, E52.