Inflation and time great ratios: Long term evidence from the US

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ahmed, S; Rogers, JH
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00040-9
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 3-35
• 关键词: inflation; INVESTMENT; great ratios; Tobin effect; Fisher effect

摘要

Using over 100 years of U.S. data, we find that the long-run effects of inflation on consumption, investment, and output are positive. Also, great ratios like the consumption and investment rates are not independent of inflation, which we interpret in terms of the Fisher effect. However, the variability of the stochastic inflation trend is small relative to the variability of the productivity and fiscal trends. Thus, models generating long-term negative effects of inflation on output and consumption seem to be at odds with data from the moderate inflation rate environment we consider. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: E31 and E32.