Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hallwood, CP; MacDonald, R; Marsh, IW
• 署名单位: University of Connecticut; University of Strathclyde; City St Georges, University of London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 605-620
• 关键词: gold standard; Fixed exchange rates; Peso problem; credibility; interest parity

摘要

We investigate dollar-sterling exchange rate expectations during the period 1890-1908. We show that the dollar faced a 'Peso problem' in that for much of the period financial markets expected it to depreciate against sterling, but this never in fact happened - i.e. expectations were persistently biased. Drawing on the economic history of the period we identify 11 'events' which probably gave rise to realignment expectations. Once the dollar's adherence to the gold standard was settled as a political matter in the 1896 Presidential Election expectations of dollar realignment abruptly subsided and United States interest rates fell relative to British rates. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C53; E58; F31; F33.