Exchange rate systems and macroeconomic stability

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Collard, F; Dellas, H
• 署名单位: University of Bern
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00101-0
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 571-599
• 关键词: exchange rate systems; monetary union; Macroeconomic volatility; international business cycle transmission; Taylor rules; staggered wages

摘要

We examine macroeconomic stability and the properties of the international transmission of business cycles under three exchange rate systems: a flexible, a unilateral peg (EMS) and a single currency (EMU). The subjects of study are Germany and France. In France, macroeconomic volatility under EMU is comparable to that under a flexible exchange rate system but considerably lower than that under EMS. In Germany, output volatility is significantly higher under EMS-relative to the flexible regime-and increases even further under EMU. Inflation, though, becomes more stable. EMU also induces a strong negative international transmission of country specific supply shocks and amplifies their role. This fact may complicate ECB policymaking. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.