Does the Barro-Gordon model explain the behavior of US inflation? A reexamination of the empirical evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ruge-Murcia, FJ
• 署名单位: Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00083-7
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1375-1390
• 关键词: asymmetric preferences; prudence; game-theoretical models of monetary policy; ARCH

摘要

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman's model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman's model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.