Labor-supply shifts and economic fluctuations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chang, Y; Schorfheide, F
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.02.001
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1751-1768
• 关键词: labor-supply shifts; VAR identification; home production; Bayesian econometrics

摘要

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that distinguishes shifts of and movements along the labor demand schedule to identify labor-supply shocks. According to our VAR analysis of post-war US data, labor-supply shifts account for about 30 percent of the variation in hours and about 15 percent of the output fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. To assess the role of labor-supply shifts in a more structural framework, estimates from a dynamic general equilibrium model with stochastic variation in home production technology are compared to those from the VAR. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.