Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Baxter, M; Kouparitsas, MA
• 署名单位: Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.08.002
• 发表日期: 2005
• 页码: 113-157
• 关键词: International business cycles; comovement; international trade; currency unions

摘要

This paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries. Our dataset includes over 100 countries, both developed and developing. We search for variables that are robust in explaining comovement. using the approach of Learner (Amer. Econom. Rev. 73 (1983) 31). Variables considered are (i) bilateral trade between countries: (ii) total trade in each country; (iii) sectoral structure; (iv) similarity in export and import baskets: (v) factor endowments; and (vi) gravity variables. We find that bilateral trade is robust. However, two variables that the literature has argued are important for business cycles-industrial structure and currency unions-are found not to be robust. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.