Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Neumeyer, PA; Perri, F
• 署名单位: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET); New York University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.011
• 发表日期: 2005
• 页码: 345-380
• 关键词: country risk; financial crises; International business cycles; sudden stops; working capital

摘要

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also amplifies the effects of those shocks. The model generates business cycles consistent with Argentine data. Eliminating country risk lowers Argentine output volatility by 27% while stabilizing international rates lowers it by less than 3%. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.