Uncertainty, hiring, and subsequent performance: The NFL draft

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hendricks, W; DeBrock, L; Koenker, R
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/377025
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 857-886
• 关键词: players compensation; DISCRIMINATION; RACE

摘要

In this article, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the hiring process. We show the connection between models of statistical discrimination where uncertainty can work against groups that have less reliable indicators of future productivity and models of option value where uncertainty about future productivity can be beneficial for these groups. These models generate hypotheses about the relationship between ex ante hiring patterns and ex post productivity. This is applied to the market for NFL football players. We provide various estimates of NFL success, which suggest that statistical discrimination and option value influence choices in this market.