On money and output: Is money redundant?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hafer, R. W.; Haslag, Joseph H.; Jones, Garett
• 署名单位: University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; Southern Illinois University System; Southern Illinois University Edwardsville
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.06.004
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 945-954
• 关键词: output gap; money targeting; interest rate targeting

摘要

There is an emerging consensus that money can be largely ignored in making monetary policy decisions. Rudebusch and Svensson [1999, Policy Rules and Inflation Targeting. In Taylor, J.B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 203-246; 2002, Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data. European Economic Review 46, 417-442] provide some empirical support for this view. We reconsider the role of money and find that money is not redundant. More specifically, there is a significant statistical relationship between lagged values of money and the output gap, even when lagged values of real interest rates and lagged values of the output gap are accounted for. We also find that inside and outside money provide significant information in predicting movements in the output gap. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.