Crude substitution: The cyclical dynamics of oil prices and the skill premium

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Polgreen, Linnea; Silos, Pedro
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; University of Iowa
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.03.002
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 409-418
• 关键词: Skill heterogeneity; energy prices; business cycles; capital-skill complementarity

摘要

At the business cycle frequency, energy prices and the skill premium display a strong, negative correlation. This fact is robust to different de-trending procedures. Identifying exogenous shocks to oil prices using the Hoover-Perez [1994. Post hoc ergo propter once more: an evaluation of 'Does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin. journal of Monetary Econonmics 34, 47-73] dates, shows that the skill premium falls in response to Such a shock. The estimation of the parameters of an aggregate technology that uses, among other inputs, energy and heterogeneous skills, demonstrates that capital-skill and capital-energy complementarity are responsible for this correlation. As energy prices rise, the use of capital decreases and the demand for unskilled labor-relative to skilled labor-increases, lowering the skill premium. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.