How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Edelstein, Paul; Kilian, Lutz
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.001
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 766-779
• 关键词: Energy prices; consumption; Consumer sentiment; Purchasing power; asymmetry

摘要

There is growing evidence that the primary effect of energy price shocks on the U.S. economy involves a reduction in consumer spending. We quantify the direct effect on real consumption of unanticipated changes in discretionary income, shifts in precautionary savings, and changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables, The possibility of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price shocks is also considered. We demonstrate that linear models are consistent with the symmetric behavior of real consumption in 1979 (when energy prices increased sharply) and in 1986 (when they fell sharply). It is shown that historically energy price shocks have been an important factor in explaining U.S. real consumption growth, but by no means the dominant factor. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.