Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik
• 署名单位: University of St Andrews; University of Oregon
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.09.007
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 930-953
• 关键词: taxation; expectations; Ramsey model

摘要

The impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations is considered. Agents are assumed to combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule. These issues are analyzed using two well-known set-ups, an endowment economy and the Ramsey model. In our scenario there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning. The approach could be applied to other frameworks. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.