Reevaluating the modernization hypothesis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Acemoglu, Daron; Johnson, Simon; Robinson, James A.; Yared, Pierre
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.10.002
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 1043-1058
• 关键词: Democracy; Economic growth; institutions; Political development

摘要

We revisit and critically reevaluate the widely accepted modernization hypothesis which claims that per capita income causes the creation and the consolidation of democracy. Existing studies find support for this hypothesis because they fail to control for the presence of omitted variables. Controlling for these factors either by including country fixed effects in a linear model or by including parameterized random effects in a nonlinear double hazard model removes the correlation between income and the likelihood of transitions to and from democratic regimes. In addition, the estimated fixed effects from the linear model are related to historical factors that affect both the level of income per capita and the likelihood of democracy in a country. This evidence is consistent with the idea that events during critical historical junctures can lead to divergent political-economic development paths, some leading to prosperity and democracy, others to relative poverty and non-democracy. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.