The Great Inflation and the Greenbook

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carboni, Giacomo; Ellison, Martin
• 署名单位: University of Oxford; European Central Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.003
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 831-841
• 关键词: Great Inflation; Greenbook; learning; monetary policy

摘要

Can the story of evolving Federal Reserve beliefs in The Conquest of American Inflation simultaneously explain the Great Inflation and the forecasts published in the Greenbook during that time? if Sargent is correct then evolving beliefs should be reflected not only in policy outcomes but also in Greenbook forecasts. In this paper they are. By conditioning on the Greenbook, it is show that both inflation outcomes and Greenbook forecasts can be rationalised by evolving beliefs. The results improve on recent empirical evidence that has been criticised for relying on unrealistic beliefs that produce forecasts inconsistent with the Greenbook. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.