Investment shocks and business cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Tambalotti, Andrea
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.12.008
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 132-145
• 关键词: DSGE model; Durable consumption goods; imperfect competition; Endogenous markups; Bayesian methods

摘要

The origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists. This paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the U.S. economy. In this model, most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment. Imperfect competition and, to a lesser extent, technological frictions are the key to their transmission. Although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies, they are irrelevant over the business cycle. This finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.