News shocks and business cycles
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Barsky, Robert B.; Sims, Eric R.
署名单位：
University of Notre Dame; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0304-3932
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2011.03.001
发表日期：
2011
页码：
273-289
关键词：
摘要：
This paper proposes and implements a novel structural VAR approach to the identification of news shocks about future technology. The news shock is identified as the shock orthogonal to the innovation in current utilization-adjusted TFP that best explains variation in future TFP. A favorable news shock leads to an increase in consumption and decreases in output, hours, and investment on impact - more suggestive of standard DSGE models than of recent extensions designed to generate news-driven business cycles. Though news shocks account for a significant fraction of output fluctuations at medium frequencies, they contribute little to our understanding of recessions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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