Are central banks' projections meaningful?
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Gali, Jordi
署名单位：
Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0304-3932
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2011.11.004
发表日期：
2011
页码：
537-550
关键词：
摘要：
Central banks projections - i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path - are often criticized on the grounds that their assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. The present paper describes three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to the above criticism, using the New Keynesian model as a reference framework. The three approaches are shown to generate different projections for inflation and output, even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate. The latter result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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