Do people understand monetary policy?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carvalho, Carlos; Nechio, Fernanda
• 署名单位: Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.04.013
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 108-123
• 关键词: Survey data; monetary policy; COMMUNICATION; Taylor rule; Inflation expectations; Michigan Survey; Survey of Professional Forecasters

摘要

We combine questions from the Michigan Survey about future inflation, unemployment, and interest rates to investigate whether households are aware of the basic features of U.S. monetary policy. Our findings provide evidence that some households form their expectations in a way that is consistent with a Taylor (1993)-type rule. We also document a large degree of variation in the pattern of responses over the business cycle. In particular, the negative relationship between unemployment and interest rates that is apparent in the data only shows up in households' answers during periods of labor market weakness. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.