Time to produce and emerging market crises

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Schwartzman, Felipe
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.07.010
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 37-52
• 关键词: Working capital; Time to build; crises; inventories; Emerging markets

摘要

After emerging market crises, value added falls more in manufacturing industries that normally exhibit higher inventory/cost ratios. Moreover, the difference in value added between manufacturing industries with different inventory/cost ratios persists years into the recovery. A shock to aggregate TFP cannot by itself match this pattern. In contrast, a persistent increase in the cost of foreign capital can. In the context of a calibrated multisector small open economy model, a shock to the cost of foreign capital consistent with the cross-industry data leads, 3-5 years after the onset of the crisis, to an average reduction of output relative to a trend of 5.4 percent. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.