Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Schwandt, Hannes; von Wachter, Till
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/701046
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: S161-S198
• 关键词: mobility; matter; wage; neighborhoods; education; exposure; school; time

摘要

This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions, especially for less advantaged entrants, that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm that the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from census data.