Dissent in monetary policy decisions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Riboni, Alessandro; Ruge-Murcia, Francisco
• 署名单位: Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; McGill University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.03.006
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 137-154
• 关键词: committees; Voting models; supermajority; Political economy of central banking

摘要

Voting records indicate that dissents in monetary policy committees are frequent and predictability regressions show that they help forecast future policy decisions. This paper develops a model of consensual collective decision-making and dissent, and estimates it using individual voting data from the Bank of England and the Riksbank. Regressions based on artificial data simulated from the model show that decision-making frictions help account for the predictive power of current dissents. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.