Leveraged bubbles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.08.005
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: S1-S20
• 关键词: Boom; Bust; Bank lending; Debt overhang; crises; local projections

摘要

What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? This paper studies bubbles in housing and equity markets in 17 countries over the past 140 years. History shows that not all bubbles are a like. Some have enormous costs for the economy, while others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit. When fueled by credit booms, asset price bubbles increase financial crisis risks; upon collapse they tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Credit-financed housing price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.