News about aggregate demand and the business cycle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guo, Jang-Ting; Sirbu, Anca-Ioana; Weder, Mark
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Riverside; Western Washington University; University of Adelaide
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.01.005
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 83-96
• 关键词: News shocks; aggregate demand; business cycles

摘要

The plausibility of expectations-driven cyclical fluctuations in an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with variable capital utilization and mild increasing returns-to-scale in production is examined. Due to a dominating wealth effect, our model is able to generate qualitatively as well as quantitatively realistic aggregate fluctuations driven by news impulses to future consumption demand or government spending on goods and services. When the economy is subject to anticipated total factor productivity or investment-specific technology shocks, the relative strength of the intertemporal substitution effect needs to be enhanced for our model to exhibit positive macroeconomic co-movement and business cycle statistics that are consistent with the data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.