A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mauro, Paolo; Romeu, Rafael; Binder, Ariel; Zaman, Asad
• 署名单位: Peterson Institute for International Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Georgetown University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.07.003
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 55-70
• 关键词: Fiscal policy; public debt; budget deficits; Economic growth; Debt sustainability

摘要

Drawing on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal stocks and flows, we analyze the determinants of variation, both across countries and over time, in how fiscal policy responds to increases in the government debt-to-GDP ratio. The fiscal data comprise revenues, primary expenditures, interest bill, and government debt for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. The policy response (increase in the primary fiscal balance in response to debt increases) is found to be significantly weaker when sovereign borrowing costs are low, inflation is high, and potential economic growth worsens unexpectedly. These results are robust to political factors. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.