The Impact of the Retirement Slowdown on the US Youth Labor Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mohnen, Paul
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/725874
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 203-246
• 关键词: baby boom; college; QUALITY; skill; young; adjustments; instruments; demand; GROWTH; TRENDS

摘要

Exploiting cross-commuting zone differences in age composition among the old, this paper estimates the impact of retirements on youth labor market outcomes over the period 1980-2017. In commuting zones where fewer workers retire because of the initial age structure, there is no evidence of significant effects on youth employment, but the share of younger workers in high-skill jobs declines, while the share of younger workers in low-skill jobs rises. Fewer retirements also leads to declining youth wages and lower job mobility. This suggests that the retirement slowdown in recent decades has contributed to deteriorating early-career outcomes.