Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Jordan, Andrew; Karger, Ezra; Neal, Derek
• 署名单位: Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/730160
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: prison; crime

摘要

We examine 70,581 felony court cases filed in Chicago, Illinois, from 1990 to 2007. We exploit case randomization to assess the impact of judge assignment and sentencing decisions on the arrival of new charges. We estimate separate treatment and outcome equations for first and repeat offenders. In marginal cases, incarceration creates large and lasting reductions in recidivism among first offenders. Yet among marginal repeat offenders, incarceration creates no lasting reductions in the incidence of new felony charges. Our results raise concerns about the ubiquity of sentencing rules that recommend or dictate relative leniency for first offenders.