Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the United States

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Barsbai, Toman; Steinmayr, Andreas; Winter, Christoph
• 署名单位: University of Bristol; University of Innsbruck
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/730121
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: labor-market conditions; earnings losses; business-cycle; unemployment; EMPLOYMENT; migration; assimilation; networks; mobility; IMPACT

摘要

We analyze the impact of economic conditions at arrival on the economic integration of family-sponsored migrants in the United States. A 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate at arrival decreases annual wage income by 4% in the short run and 2% in the longer run. The loss in wage income results primarily from lower hourly wages due to occupational downgrading. Migrant and family networks help mitigate the negative labor market effects. Migrants who arrive during a recession take up occupations with higher concentrations of fellow countrypeople and are more likely to reside with family members, potentially reducing their geographical mobility.