Disappearing routine jobs: Who, how, and why?

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Cortes, Guido Matias; Jaimovich, Nir; Siu, Henry E.
• 署名单位: York University - Canada; University of Zurich; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of British Columbia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.09.006
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 69-87
• 关键词: Routine occupations; job polarization; automation; labor force participation

摘要

We study the deterioration of employment in middle-wage, routine occupations in the United States in the last 35 years. The decline is primarily driven by changes in the propensity to work in routine jobs for individuals from a small set of demographic groups. These same groups account for a substantial fraction of both the increase in non-employment and employment in low-wage, non-routine manual occupations observed during the same period. We analyze a general neoclassical model of the labor market featuring endogenous participation and occupation choice. In response to an increase in automation technology, the framework embodies a tradeoff between reallocating employment across occupations and reallocation of workers towards non-employment. Quantitatively, we find that this standard model accounts for a relatively small portion of the joint decline in routine employment and associated rise in non-routine manual employment and non-employment. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.