Local and aggregate fiscal policy multipliers

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dupor, Bill; Guerrero, Rodrigo
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.07.007
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 16-30
• 关键词: Fiscal policy; Fiscal multipliers; spillovers

摘要

Using a newly constructed panel of state-level defense contracts, this paper studies the effect of defense spending on the U.S. macroeconomy. Summing observations across states, we estimate aggregate income and employment multipliers. Comparing these to local multipliers estimated with the panel provides evidence that local multiplier estimates may be reliable indicators of fiscal policy's aggregate effects. Furthermore, evidence of small positive spillovers is found. Across several specifications, we estimate income and employment multipliers between zero and 0.5. This result is reconciled with the greater-than-one multipliers found in Nakamura and Steinsson (2014) by analyzing the Korean War years' impact on the estimation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.