Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kosar, Gizem; van der Klaauw, Wilbert
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/734088
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: S83-S121
• 关键词: consumption inequality; empirical-analysis; job insecurity; DYNAMICS; expectations; instability; uncertainty

摘要

In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper uses rich panel data to document considerable individual heterogeneity in earnings growth expectations and in the perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job exits. We examine how expectations evolve over the working life and business cycle and how they covary with macroeconomic expectations and personal experiences. While largely consistent with patterns in realized outcomes, our findings highlight the unanticipated nature of the pandemic recession and the ensuing resignation wave.