Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Svensson, Lars E. O.
• 署名单位: Stockholm School of Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.07.004
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 193-213
• 关键词: Monetary policy; Financial stability; Macroprudential policy; financial crises

摘要

An obvious cost of leaning against the wind is a weaker economy if no (financial) crisis occurs. Possible benefits are lower probabilities and smaller magnitudes of crises. A second cost-less obvious, previously overlooked, but higher-is a weaker economy if a crisis occurs. For representative estimates, costs exceed benefits by substantial margins. Overturning the result requires policy-rate effects on the probability and magnitude of crises more than 5-40 standard errors larger than representative estimates. Higher probabilities, larger magnitudes, or longer durations of crises-typical consequences of ineffective macro prudential policy-increase the margin of costs over benefits (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.