Crowding out in Ricardian economies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Abel, Andrew B.
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.03.002
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 52-66
• 关键词: crowding out; ricardian equivalence; bonds

摘要

The crowding-out coefficient is the ratio of the reduction in privately-issued bonds to the increase in government bonds that are issued to finance a tax cut. If (1) Ricardian Equivalence holds, and (2) households do not borrow risklessly while holding positive gross positions in other riskless assets, the crowding-out coefficient equals the fraction of the aggregate tax cut that accrues to households that borrow. In the conventional case in which all households receive equal tax cuts, the crowding-out coefficient equals the fraction of households that borrow; in the United States, about 75% of households borrow, so the crowding-out coefficient is predicted to be 0.75. Allowing for cross-sectional variation in tax changes increases the crowding-out coefficient to about 0.85. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.