Practical policy evaluation

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Kocherlakota, Narayana R.
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.009
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 29-45
• 关键词: Lucas Critique; Macroeconomic policy; dynamic games; Macroeconometrics

摘要

In the wake of the Lucas (1976), the study of appropriate macroeconomic policy has largely focused on the comparison of different regimes/rules. In practice, few policymakers are faced with making those kinds of choices. I examine the problem of a policymaker making but one in a sequence of similar decisions. My main result is that the policymaker's optimal response to the current state can be found by applying regression methods to past macroeconomic data. I argue that macroeconomic policy evaluation intended to be of practical value should rely less on putatively structural macroeconomic models and more on regression -based approaches. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.