The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo; Molligo, Patrick; Prestipino, Andrea; Raffo, Andrea
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.11.002
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 38-59
• 关键词: Trade policy uncertainty; Textual analysis; TARIFFS; INVESTMENT; news shocks; uncertainty shocks

摘要

This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms' earnings calls, and tariff rates. Firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data reveal that increases in TPU reduce business investment. The empirical results are interpreted through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms' export participation decisions. News and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity. Published by Elsevier B.V.