Austerity in the aftermath of the great recession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: House, Christopher L.; Proebsting, Christian; Tesar, Linda L.
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.05.004
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 37-63
• 关键词: Austerity; fiscal policy; Multi-country DSGE model

摘要

Cross-country differences in austerity, defined as government purchases below forecast, account for 75% of the observed cross-sectional variation in GDP in advanced economies during 2010-2014. Statistically, austerity is associated with lower GDP, lower inflation and higher net exports. A multi-country DSGE model calibrated to 29 advanced economies generates effects of austerity consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would have substantially reduced output losses in Europe. Austerity was so contractionary that debt-to-GDP ratios in some countries increased as a result of endogenous reductions in GDP and tax revenue. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.