Why do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal Positions?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huidrom, Raju; Kose, M. Ayhan; Lim, Jamus J.; Ohnsorge, Franziska L.
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; The World Bank; ESSEC Business School
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.03.004
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 109-125
• 关键词: fiscal multipliers; Fiscal position; State-dependency; Ricardian channel; Interest rate channel; business cycle

摘要

The fiscal position can affect fiscal multipliers through two channels. Through the Ricardian channel, households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments when fiscal stimulus is implemented from a weak fiscal position. Through the interest rate channel, fiscal stimulus from a weak fiscal position heightens investors' concerns about sovereign credit risk, raises economy-wide borrowing cost, and reduces private domestic demand. We document empirically the relevance of these two channels using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model. We find that fiscal multipliers tend to be smaller when fiscal positions are weak than strong. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.