The cyclical component of labor market polarization and jobless recoveries in the US

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gaggl, Paul; Kaufmann, Sylvia
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Charlotte; Study Center Gerzensee
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.11.005
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 334-347
• 关键词: Employment polarization; Jobless recoveries; Dynamic factor models

摘要

Based on quarterly occupation-level data from the US Current Population Survey for 1976- 2013, we exploit common cyclical employment dynamics to identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of routine and non routine jobs. After decomposing the cyclical dynamics into a cluster-specific (structural) and an occupation-specific (idiosyncratic) component, we detect significant structural breaks in the systematic dynamics of both clusters around 1990. We show that, absent these breaks, employment in the three jobless recoveries since 1990 would have recovered significantly more strongly than observed in the data, even after controlling for observed idiosyncratic shocks. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.